Courage needed, not campaign slogans

If Ray Snell is elected to a Jackson-area House seat this fall, he'll slash state spending that's "out of control."

So will Fort Gratiot's Steve Kearns in the 83rd District, Monroe's JeanMarie Dahm in the 56th and plenty of others, according to various media reports.

I don't doubt the Republicans' sincerity and admirable commitment to conservative principles. But they probably won't whip out the cleaver next year - unless there's a gun to their heads.

It's not because Democrats are likely to keep control of the lower chamber, perhaps even snatching a couple more seats. The GOP, after all, reigned over both bodies for eight straight years (and still runs the Senate) and could never stomach severe cuts.

"In my former life, I would often say to my caucus, 'We've gone from tax-and-spend Democrats to tax-cut-and-spend Republicans,'" recalls former Senate Majority Leader Ken Sikkema. "You've got to reconcile the two."

That's definitely helped create the fiscal mess we're in. Without an immediate crisis this year with only $400 million to cut (chump change compared to a $1.8 billion deficit last year) few people have paid much mind to the process. But just wait till next year when that baby balloons back to $1 billion.

I'm sure legislative hopefuls wouldn't bat an eye. There are a million places to whack (which all look great in campaign literature). Just root out all the Bridges to Nowhere, toss folks off welfare and shave the number of state employees, right?

Not quite. Once you take a closer gander at the budget, you realize that egregious pork-barrel spending is much more of a Washington phenomenon.

When I recently asked state Sen. Mark Jansen, R-Cutlerville, what are the three most glaring examples of fat in the budget, he paused for a bit before answering.

Jansen is no mealy-mouthed liberal, by the way; Michigan Information & Research Service rated him the most conservative senator last year. When legislators finally came up with a Michigan Business Tax surcharge last fall so they could dump the reviled service tax, Jansen just shook his head.

"This isn't where I expected us to be. I never thought I'd be voting for a tax increase, believe me," he said.

As far as budget bloat goes, Jansen first ticked off reducing the size of government. I'm with him on that; Michigan could combine a few state departments. Our state still functions like it's a relic from the 1960s and needs to be smaller, more efficient and more accountable.

However, there's only so much money to be saved there. And cuts need to be smart. For years, Michigan axed Department of Human Services caseworkers. Then we got sued by a children's rights advocacy group for failing to adequately protect kiddies and we're out $200 million we can't spare.

Much of the $9 billion general fund is eaten up by Jansen's second choice - Corrections. At a budget-busting $2 billion and growing, it's about the only department that's been spared in recent years thanks to law-and-order conservatives. But the Mitten State's 50,000-plus prisoners cost about $30,000 each every year to incarcerate, which can't be sustained.

Republicans and Democrats alike know cuts are in the offing next year. Look forward to finger-pointing and shouting matches in which Patrick Selepak's name will be raised 137,000 times before they do the inevitable in another all-night session.

Jansen struggled with a third place to trim, finally settling on efficiencies in education. Once again, I'm on board, but that's a tricky one. The $13 billion School Aid budget is the other pile of money the state has to play with (the rest of the $20 billion or so is tied to federal funds, which is why cutting welfare won't do much).

That means dealing with bureaucracies in 553 school districts, which spend money that should get into the classroom on employee health care and retirement and rising fuel costs. But if we cut per pupil funding, guess who will suffer? We do need a massive educational restructuring, as proposed by former state schools Superintendent Tom Watkins before Gov. Jennifer Granholm canned him for speaking truth to power.

Those kinds of changes are painful by definition. Are we ready as a state? And will it still be enough money to put us permanently in the black?

As luck would have it, our state's wretched economy and budget woes could be that metaphorical pistol staring officials in the face. Jim Hettinger, the smartest economic development guy in Michigan, thinks our state won't hit rock bottom for another three years.

And despite over $1 billion in tax hikes last year, they were the wrong kind. No, not because all taxes are evil by definition. But because the politically acceptable plan was economically deficient - it didn't solve the structural problem by reconciling tax revenue to Michigan's changing economy.

And voila! Another shortfall.

If we want to save Michigan from the brink of disaster, the time to start is now.

So best of luck to all wannabe lawmakers. Here's hoping that you have as much courage when you get to Lansing as you do campaign slogans.

Could hope spring eternal from tax compromise?

Hail to the victors.

And in this case, that’d be Mike Bishop and his Senate Republicans.

Say what you will about the ever-tan, GQ-attired Senate majority leader (this columnist has, for the record, skewered him as the Tin Woodsman and high school Homecoming king) - but the man got it done last week.

The scorned service tax is no more, replaced by a GOP-crafted surcharge on the Michigan Business Tax. The deal went down 48 hours after all hope seemed siphoned from the Capitol.

The turning point was when Democratic House Speaker Andy Dillon on Nov. 28 caved to his caucus, which voted for a plan the Senate would never sign off on and planned to split for six days.

While the Dems’ plan wasn’t unreasonable – it was actually more fiscally responsible – their bravado unwittingly gave the GOP the upper hand.

Incensed and indignant, Bishop and Sens. Jud Gilbert, R-Algonac, and Mark Jansen, R-Grand Rapids, marched into the leadership void.

"In my eight years in the Legislature, I've never seen anything that was such a violation of trust," Gilbert seethed.

Now after 11 straight months of backstabbing, bluster and brainlessness, that’s hard to swallow. Nonetheless, negotiations nosedived to another low, paving the way for an even more agonizing budget showdown next year against the backdrop of the 2008 election.

In the end, the GOP nabbed a sunset for the new MBT tax and a lower rate while raiding a rainy day fund, their favorite pastime.

Yes, Gov. Jennifer Granholm won out on revenue-neutrality – supposedly – and furiously negotiated behind the scenes. But her motivation seemed muddled – was it to demolish a bad tax she’d once succored or to slap down Dillon, her perennial rival?

So Republicans emerged the heroes for slaying the service tax just when it seemed certain it would stay on the books.

Bishop’s power was buttressed by the bill passing almost unanimously in the Senate – despite Democrats’ yowling that they’d been shut out of the process – and by a wide margin in the House.

Though Granholm clearly won the main budget battle back on Oct. 1, those are numbers she could only dream of. Which is why the GOP keeps chanting the service tax and income tax hike are “the Democrats’ plan.”

But rather than be statesmanlike about his triumph, the bitter Bishop afterward again slammed the House, declaring there was “no excuse for any legislators to have turned their back on” the process. The governor at least gets better grades for graciousness in the last round.

Yet Bishop’s phrasing is curious. Note that he doesn’t single out House Dems, because Minority Leader Craig DeRoche, R-Novi, was (surprise) MIA in the mediation, as he has been all year.

DeRoche’s sole goal seems to be carrying water for a few whack-jobs in the state GOP and the intelligent, but indelibly ideological folks at the free-market Mackinac Center for Public Policy.

Bizarrely, this is how he justified his loathing of the deal that was practically penned by the business community: “To say (it) supports this plan is like saying that a death row inmate chooses the firing squad over the electric chair.”

Contrast DeRoche’s denial and disconnect with Bishop, who’s been a player from the beginning.

Now for the downtrodden Dems, here’s the silver lining.

The business tax hike is now a bonified bipartisan baby – 65 percent of legislators flicked the switch for it. Rather than slash spending, Senate Republicans championed a plan that hiked taxes on a core constituency.

Yeah, they spin it as cut over the sales tax – something we’ll never know for sure since the whipping boy is dead. But as diehard conservatives intone, a tax is a tax is a tax.

What this means is that right-wing interests aren’t as apt to ardently rally ‘round the Republicans next year. That could serve as a cushion for Democrats, who sprint out the gate late thanks to a botched, meaningless Jan. 15 presidential primary.

The across-the-aisle deal also could sap the wind from the sails of the recall movement, whose money and momentum was spurred by the reviled service tax.

The anti-tax zealots - who appear to worship at the altar of his immense foaminess, Mr. Perks, instead of our Lord and savior, Jesus Christ – have always hunted Dems and a few token Republicans who really irked them. Watch their fervor and funds dry up at the prospect of taking out so many of their own.

In the end, what truly matters is leaders of both parties came together and did something constructive. It wasn’t great policy and it wasn’t without ego, rancorous rhetoric or excruciating delay.

(“We’re trying to forge world peace,” Sen. Jason Allen, R-Traverse City, cracked Friday afternoon.)

Could be a start. The odds are long, but this is the season of hope, after all.